publications
publications by categories in reversed chronological order. generated by jekyll-scholar.
2025
- AI, Political Opinion, and BehaviorSimon Gregor Duris2025
Technological innovation, from agricultural mechanization to computerization, has transformed economies in the past. Artificial intelligence (AI) represents the next wave of workplace automation, yet its effects on political preferences and voting behavior have remained unstudied so far. With AI predicted to affect most modern jobs, understanding who will be affected and how this influences political behavior is crucial. I develop an economic framework predicting AI automation winners (high-skill, high AI exposure) and losers (low-skill, high AI exposure). I argue that losers will favor more redistribution and oppose immigration, with the former mediating populist left voting and the latter mediating populist right voting. Using ESS data (2015-2024) with matching and mediation analysis, I find AI losers indeed favor more redistribution and less immigration, but only immigration attitudes translate into voting behavior, specifically for populist right parties. Notably, anti-immigration attitudes also predict populist left voting more than redistribution preferences. All in all, results demonstrate that (AI) automation losers misattribute economic hardship, changing political preferences and behavior in response to AI’s negative effects. This cautions against an AI transformation without policies supporting AI automation losers.
@mastersthesis{duris2025thesis, title = {AI, Political Opinion, and Behavior}, author = {Duris, Simon Gregor}, year = {2025}, school = {Utrecht University}, type = {Master's Thesis}, }
2024
- Insanity: Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results – Globalization Losers’ Switch from Left Parties to Populist Radical Right PartiesSimon Gregor Duris2024Term paper, University of Konstanz
This study investigates the voting behavior of globalization’s economic losers, examining their shift from traditional left-wing parties to populist radical right (PRR) parties in European democracies. Using individual-level data from the European Social Survey (2008-2020) across 16 countries, the research conceptualizes globalization exposure through the intersection of job offshorability and skill level. Through matching analysis, the study demonstrates that individuals negatively affected by globalization are significantly more likely to vote for PRR parties and hold more negative views toward immigration. These findings support the ’economic nationalism’ thesis, suggesting that globalization losers turn to PRR parties’ protectionist platforms rather than traditional left-wing compensation promises. The research contributes to our understanding of the micro-foundations behind PRR success and raises important questions about effective policy responses to economic displacement in an era of limited welfare state expansion.
@unpublished{duris2024insanity, title = {Insanity: {Doing} the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results -- {Globalization} Losers' Switch from Left Parties to Populist Radical Right Parties}, author = {Duris, Simon Gregor}, year = {2024}, note = {Term paper, University of Konstanz}, }